Author: Julian Bright - Omdia
Most probably, and for many reasons, 5G rollout in 2020 will almost certainly be significantly slower than anticipated, with China being a possible exception.
As commercial activity stalls and business plans are overturned all sectors are experiencing disruption to global supply chains. Network equipment vendors suggest that these are so far being managed effectively and with zero impact but maintaining production facilities in seriously affected markets is likely to become more challenging over time. So too is access to alternative sources of materials and components when existing supplies are affected.
Reduced levels of staffing at operators, vendors, tower companies, and related engineering businesses will be a consequence in the short term as much outdoor activity is curtailed, with field staff stretched as they work to maintain services throughout the present crisis. Coupled with reduced capacity for equipment manufacture and testing, this may well put a natural brake on 5G deployments.
Reduced demand expectations are also causing smartphone manufacturers to cut back on component orders and reduce sales forecasts for affected countries for much of 2020. As retail stores shut down those consumers who want a 5G phone will find they are increasingly difficult to obtain.
Beyond the immediate impact on physical rollouts, there are concerns over the 3GPP standards process. The recently announced delay in 3GPP Rel 16 and 17 could impact 5G uptake for the next several years.
In the short term, overall network traffic may well increase rather than decrease as virtual communications and e-meetings replace face-to-face working. But as the workplace switches from the office to the home, domestic broadband networks and fiber will fulfil much of this displaced activity and extra demand.
Faced with these pressures network operators may well conclude that 5G is best given a lower priority until normal service can be restored. This will have the advantage of allowing more resources to be given over to maintaining or upgrading existing networks, enabling them to remain resilient and services available to the widest possible section of the population.
The progressive geographical spread of the COVID-19 virus and hoped-for recovery that follows will mean those markets to suffer the
effects earlier may recover sooner than others. Nevertheless, by the end of 2020 it is almost certain that 5G rollouts will be less advanced than was previously anticipated, with progress needing to be re-assessed and forecasts revised.
It must be hoped that this will only be a temporary setback for 5G, but in the current climate, pressing ahead with scheduled deployments would seem impractical and a re-evaluation of 5G timelines inevitable.
