Creative labor moves and new tech tools will help offset pricing and supply chain challenges
In a few weeks, we’ll see the two-year anniversary of the start of the most transformative event in recent history, superseding even 9-11 and the 2008 stock market crash in the impact is has had, and will continue to have, on onsite dining programs, not to mention just about everything else. That event of course is the emergence of the COVID-19 coronavirus in March 2020, which forced shutdowns and social restrictions that continue in some form to this day.
For the various markets that constitute the onsite dining universe, the impacts of COVID were devastating, forcing some such as sports/recreation concessions and conference/convention center catering to come to a complete halt while most others saw steep declines in business. The advent of vaccines early last year has allowed a mitigation of restrictions, though new virus variants may threaten that easing. Nevertheless, most observers seem to anticipate a continued crawl back to some semblance of “normal” in the coming year and it is on that assumption that the editors of Food Management have based the following predictions.
The past year has seen a gradual easing of lockdowns and mandates but don’t be fooled. With the parade of COVID variants that have been emerging combined with concerns about vaccines’ effectiveness to combat them and lingering societal anxieties about personal safety, any full return to pre-pandemic “normal” is not likely in 2022, though neither is a return to full lockdown mode…
That being said, a slow return to pre-pandemic practices such as self-serve bars and full occupancy dining rooms can be expected, something that is already occurring in some parts of the country to varying extents.
Photo Credit: HHS
Pandemic-related concerns and various demographic/social factors will continue to constrict the labor pool in 2022, meaning that operators will have to become more efficient with how and where they allocate the labor they have, even as that labor will have more leverage in deciding working conditions, hours and compensation.
This is already happening in B&I, where the prospect of full-scale office returns remains an open question, but the phenomenon also extends to the college and K-12 markets, where demographic decreases combined with home schooling/remote learning alternatives are reducing the overall in-person student pool, and in healthcare, where growing telehealth options erode the number of onsite visits to facilities, in turn reducing the potential customer base for the retail dining program.
As labor remains scarce—and becomes more expensive when it is available—operators are likely to turn increasingly to emerging technologies like smart fridges, automated retail outlets, high-tech vending units and robotic food stations to provide foodservice, especially at times and in places where manned outlets are economic non-starters.
Photo Credit: Prince William Schools
Photo Credit: Delaware North
During the height of the pandemic, operators found ways to reach remote customers, most prominently with K-12 programs developing curbside pickup and even home delivery to reach remote learners. Meanwhile, some B&I operators also dabbled with take-home meals and even off-premise delivery to reach client employees working from home, while healthcare facilities have begun exploring the provision of meals to discharged patients and even sports concessionaires developed meal kits that allow fans watching events at home to enjoy ballpark/stadium favorites. As onsite customer counts lag, look for more operations to explore alternative business niches where extra revenue might be generated.
Remote ordering exploded during the pandemic as the preferred method of contact with foodservice providers in both the commercial and onsite markets, and there’s no reason to think it will regress even if the pandemic comes to a full halt, as the apps providing this service are now in place and customers are increasingly comfortable with them. Ghost kitchens—foodservice operations that serve exclusively as production and pickup outlets for remote orders—are a natural extension of the remote order culture and can be expected to proliferate accordingly.
Photo Credit: Fresh Ideas Foodservice
It seems like every week brings news of one more college campus rolling out meal delivery robots, but that’s just the tip of the spear of automated delivery as major restaurant and retail operators experiment not only with robots but full-size unmanned vehicles and even airborne drones. This is an area of technology that can be expected to evolve rapidly in response to strong market pressures.
Photo Credit: Sodexo
Photo Credit: C&S Wholesale Grocers
Markets usually find a way around obstacles if the self-interest—read, profits—is strong enough, and the betting here is that that is what will happen with the current supply chain snags. Yes, truckers are in short supply, ships are stacked up off the California coast and manufacturers are having a hell of a time getting the ingredients and the workers they need to keep up with demand, but none of this is insurmountable. Look for increased innovation in the products manufacturers produce, the ways distributors evolve scheduling and the ways operators place orders and receive shipments. By the way, one positive that has come out of the supply chain crisis is a growing appreciation of local suppliers whose products are more readily at hand.
A combination of pent-up demand, escalating fuel prices that impact delivery costs and increased labor, ingredient and production costs at the supplier end all mean a likely continuance and even escalation of food prices across the board through 2022.
Biting into something new is an experience we’re chasing as we anticipate the culinary trends predicted to make those bites something to remember. All in all, dining is about that experience, and this year, that’ll get amped up. Matt Faul, CEO of Wolverine Management says diners are totally looking for that special something. “I predict more unique flavor experiences,” he says.
“Diners are now able to experience explosions of unique flavors and ingredients unlike ever before,” Faul adds. “The rise of social media and influences, who like to treat food as a flavorful journey, creates a demand for restaurants and culinary experts to find the next trend or flavor wave that can create an impact. Diners want to bite into something or sip a cocktail with a flavor journey that has a beginning, middle and end.”
After years of getting pushed into a corner by the low-carb craze, pasta is back and better than ever. Lots of global flavor profiles work beautifully with pasta, too (think nori-topped noodles). Take inspiration from a twist on pasta primavera, featuring chicken-lentil meatballs, by UMass with Barilla Foodservice.
According to the National Restaurant Association’s annual “What’s Hot” report, Caribbean food will heat up big time.
Sweet-yet-tart hibiscus has been infusing cocktails and showing up in flavored waters and ciders, according to Mara Weinraub, groceries editor at Kitchn. She predicts hibiscus will also be appearing more in yogurts and spreads.
As the food technology for meatless proteins just keeps getting better, the results are surprisingly realistic. Expect to see more meatless proteins this year, particularly plant-based chicken.
A couple years ago, Detroit pizza took the food world by storm. Now, other specifically regional items are stepping into the spotlight, too, like this Cincinnati chili by Chartwells at Northern Kentucky University.
Take a cue from chefs like Rick Bayless who has celebrated the use of the melty cheese sauce on burgers on social media. Expect more chefs to think beyond chips and dip to use queso throughout the menu.
Clean eating and eating for health are gaining real momentum. Watch for more simply-prepared vegetables and grains to make their way onto menus.
Move over açai bowls. Chia pudding is the cool new kid on the block. The protein-packed chia seeds can sit overnight in oat milk, for example, to become a healthfu, fun breakfast.
Ever tried a Pink Squirrel? How about an Old Fashioned? Retro cocktails—with or without alcohol—are just the drink for changing times.
The National Restaurant Association predicts spicy, globally inspired fries are going to be a big appetizer this year. At the University of Houston, for example, you can find thick steak fries topped with tender brisket.
