Convenience-obsessed consumers and rapidly evolving tech tools spur major changes for restaurants
A few years ago, these things barely registered as restaurant trends to watch. Today, however, they’re becoming commonplace across the restaurant industry thanks to the whiplash-inducing switch to digital-first operations spurred on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
What other trends are taking hold across foodservice (thanks to COVID-19 or not)? To answer that question, Nation’s Restaurant News’ editors pulled together the trends most likely to shape restaurant menus, tech, operations, customer experience this year. Here’s what to expect in 2022.
Beverage-development company Flavorman says subtly flavored seltzers are reaching the saturation point. “We are now seeing more clients ask for loud and proud, single-note flavors,” said chief flavorist Tom Gibson. That especially includes easily recognizable flavors that strike a nostalgic chord, like watermelon, strawberry, cherry, apple and grape. Flavorman said there could be a pandemic-related reason for this. A prominent symptom of COVID-19 is loss of taste and smell. Robust flavors could provide reassurance that to people they still have, or have recovered, those senses.
Alcohol consumption surged at the start of the pandemic, but as people start going out more, consumers are turning once again to drinks with low ABV (alcohol by volume), or spirit-free beverages, according to international food and restaurant consultants Baum & Whiteman. Factors affecting this trend include “more mindful eating and drinking, snazzier packaging and marketing, improved products that taste more like the real thing and restoring physical fitness that went downhill during Covid,” the company said in its annual trend predictions report.
Baum & Whiteman mentioned that phrase as one of the trends to look for in 2022, and indeed many of them are already in restaurants, such as the Citrus Beet Hummus — made with red beets and orange mixed into the garbanzo bean paste — and Kalamata Olive Hummus — a blend of olives and garbanzo beans — at Garbanzo Mediterranean Fresh. There’s also the Fall Seasonal Hummus available on the all-you-can-eat Market Table at Fogo de Chão, which is hummus topped with roasted mushrooms, parsley, extra virgin olive oil and garlic chips. Yalla Mediterranean also has a hummus with beets added to it, another for which the chickpeas are flavored with the North African spice blend Chermoula and a third with another North African spice blend, harissa.
Plant-based chicken Baum & Whiteman expects the next popular plant-based meat substitute to be chicken analogs. Impossible Foods rolled out its version in 2021, and rival company Beyond Meat, which first introduced a bird-free chicken more than a decade ago, has also launched a new version. Those and other chicken substitutes have been tested at Burger King, A&W, Panda Express, KFC and other large chains. Meanwhile, &pizza just introduced Daring brand chicken substitute systemwide in November.
Sister consulting firms AF&Co and Carbonate expect to see beer with fruit purées added after the first fermentation. They report that this is an offshoot of the sour beer trend, with the purées often added to tart brews. Sometimes they have ingredients besides fruit added, too, such as in the PB&J Slushy beer from 450 North Brewing Company in Columbus, Ind., made with blackberry, banana, grape, peanut butter and marshmallow.
Singapore, the city-state on an island at the tip of the Malay Peninsula in Southeast Asia, has a distinctive cuisine that reflects the Chinese, Malay and Indian heritages of most of its citizens, and it is striking a chord with Americans, according to AF&Co. and Carbonate. The firms note that many people might have become acquainted with the country from seeing the 2018 film “Crazy Rich Asians.” The two firms declared the Singaporean curry noodle dish laksa to be the “hottest dish of the year.”
AF&Co and Carbonate also predict more dry-aged fish in American restaurants. A practice long applied in Japan to oily fish to concentrate their flavors, similar to the way beef is dry-aged for American steakhouses, the sister consulting firms expect the practice to spread in the U.S. as consumers delve more deeply into the cuisines of Japan. As an example, they point to Lucky Robot Japanese Kitchen in Austin, Texas, which has offered tastings of dry-aged bluefin and big eye tuna.
AF& Co and Carbonate called the food of the region extending from the West Indies to Belize and Guyana the “cuisine of the year.” Encompassing many cultures and cooking styles — from conch fritters and barracuda steaks to goat stew, whole roasted hog, mofongo and callaloo — the foods of the region are becoming increasingly popular, particularly as Black chefs in the U.S. explore their own culinary roots.
Bret Thorn, Nation’s Restaurant News senior food and beverage editor, on the cuisines and foods he’ll be watching in the year ahead.
Tequila suppliers reported just under $4 billion in revenue in 2020, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, up from $962 million in 2003, an increase of more than 310%. In 2020 alone, revenue was up by 17.4%, and that was before the launch of numerous tequilas by celebrities in 2021. Meanwhile, mezcal sales grew by 17.7% in 2020 to surpass $124.1 billion. In recent years interest has also grown in lesser known agave spirits, including raicilla and bacanora, as well as sotol, which is made from a different type of cactus than agave. Distinctive enough to be interesting, but palate-friendly enough to be used in many cocktails, you can expect to see growing interest in, and purchase of, this growing family of liquors.
The cuisines of the region stretching from Mauritania to Cameroon are continuing to gain traction, both as chefs such as Kwame Onwuachi — born in New York City but with Nigerian roots — Nigerian chef Simileoluwa Adebajo, Senegalese chef Pierre Thiam and others further share their foods with American audiences, and as other Black chefs explore the more distant heritage of the African diaspora. Expect to see charismatic dishes such as the grilled meat called suya and the joloff rice that is probably an ancestor of Jambalaya to appear on more menus, as well as stews made with egusi (melon seeds), on more menus.
It is well known that Mexicans and Central Americans have been heating corn in water mixed with basic compounds (as opposed to acidic ones) such as lime or potash for millennia to improve its nutrition and make it easier to work with. But they also treat high-pectin fruit and vegetables (particularly squash) similarly. The result is a firmer skin and softer flesh that chefs in the U.S. are slowly catching on to (it turns out that french fries treated similarly are more crisp, too). You can expect more experimentation with this process in the years to come.
This breed of cattle, whose name means “Japanese beef,” is prized for its rich marbling and fetches a premium price tag, particularly the ultra-marbled meat imported from Japan. But with conventional beef also causing sticker shock, the path is open for both foreign and domestic wagyu — the latter often cross-bred with other breeds such as Angus. If you’re going to splurge on steak, why not go all the way? And price pressures don’t appear to be as strong for Japanese wagyu. “While there may be shortages of luxury goods from other parts of the world, one thing there’s plenty of right now is Japanese Wagyu,” said Ayaka Matsui, representing the House of Japanese Wagyu Campaign by JFOODO, a trade organization that oversees the production and export of the Japanese beef. Matsui said exports of Japanese beef rose by 307.8 percent in 2021. The Japanese agriculture ministry said it plans to nearly triple the export of wagyu by 2025 compared to 2019.
For more trends & predictions, follow Bret Thorn on Twitter.
We’ve been talking about robotic kitchen employees and delivery vehicles for several years now, but they still have not become mainstream yet. Both AF&Co restaurant marketing company and Baum & Whiteman restaurant consultants believe that the days of robots becoming a mainstay in kitchens are nearly upon us. AF&Co points to robotic bartenders as the next big AI foodservice investment, particularly at large events like festivals and sporting events. Baum & Whiteman believes that with labor challenges still plaguing the industry, bots like Flippy the Robot from Miso Robotics could be a go-to solution, with other international robotics companies like SavorEats’ robot that 3D prints and cooks plant-based burgers.
Ghost kitchens were (and still are) one of the buzziest restaurant industry trends, but with nearly every single major restaurant chain (and newer virtual restaurant companies like C3) rushing to invest in virtual restaurants, will the bubble pop? Baum & Whiteman predicts that the ghost kitchen space is about to get quite competitive, and there could be a point of oversaturation, which the firm compares to the dot-com boom of the ’90s. Baum & Whiteman predicts consolidations and mergers over the next two years between the major ghost kitchen players because eventually the virtual whitespace will be gobbled up.
Joanna Fantozzi, Nation’s Restaurant News senior editor, on how new tech tools are changing how consumers get their food — and how tasty it is when they do.
This past year we’ve seen Starbucks launch a new pickup order board for its new pickup store in New York City in collaboration with Amazon Go, which will eliminate some congestion and confusion when a long line of customers come in to grab their pre-ordered morning latte. Taco Bell also launched pickup cubbies for its new flagship store in New York City. We predict more cubbies and pickup order boards, but with temperature controls to keep food fresh.
Swedish company Dometic launched a temperature-controlled delivery box that keeps hot food hot and cold food cold as food is in route for delivery. With complaints growing over soggy food, cold meals and food of variant temperatures being placed near each other, expect packaging technology to be prioritized to keep the growing percentage of restaurant delivery customers satisfied and not dealing with cold, mushy french fries.
Bo Peabody, former CEO of Union Square Hospitality Group and founder of the app Seated, is predicting a drop in high-end restaurants. High-end dining has not only fallen out of favor among consumers, but also, emerging restaurateurs aren’t as invested in that category as they are more casual concepts.
Many restaurants are changing their formatting from table service to counter service — or to a tech-powered hybrid model — according to both Peabody and Nextbite cofounder Paul Allen. The shift allows for more kitchen and less front-of-house space, along with fewer wait staff, thereby allowing for fewer workers per shift and more room in the back to prep to-go and virtual orders.
The boom in off-premises business has increased the need for better to-go packaging. The National Restaurant Association predicts that restaurants are looking to maintain the quality, look and temperature of the food as they attempt to re-create the dining experience at-home with new packaging.
Allen also predicts that there will be an increase in the already booming digital channels for virtual brands and off-premises delivery. Like the shrinking front-of-house space, this is paving the way for more virtual brands operating out of the same kitchen and a higher off-premises business.
There is no one app to reach a specific customer base anymore, Allen said. Snapchat, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok are all important when marketing any brand, but the differences among each audience are not as clear as they used to be. And as customers of all ages use social media and apps to order food, restaurants will increasingly need to invest in a presence on all platforms where there are potential guests.
With the introduction of more kitchen space and the rise of the digital marketplace comes the potential for multiple cuisines served in one order, Allen said. That could lead to restaurants diversifying their menus to serve multiple cravings — and it could allow operators to get more adventurous with their R&D, offering, for example, global foods in a more meat-and-potatoes part of the country.
Robots won’t just be in the back of house; they’re also going to take to the streets, Allen predicted. With cities around the country beginning to use driverless cars for public transit, expect to see more restaurants and delivery companies using autonomous vehicles or robots for deliveries without the labor cost.
Holly Petre, Nation’s Restaurant News digital editor, on over-the-top branding and the influence of Instagram.
As restaurants dive into the off-premises mindset, they must compete with more orders. This means that kitchens are getting bigger while eating areas are getting smaller. But the smaller spaces will be decorated to the nines with Instagrammable moments and ways for brands to get social media attention with very little effort, making the most use of the smaller space.
There’s no playing it safe anymore. Like the design of the restaurant, consumers want food that excites them. Think of Velvet Taco’s WTF weekly taco feature that uses all sorts of strange ingredients to make a taco. It’s perfect for social media and it makes consumers want to try the “next best thing.” At the end of the day, making consumers want what you’re cooking because it’s pretty to look at or has some weird ingredient (like alligator) will attract guests.
Catering is starting to come back, but it’s going to look different than it used to. Larger parties and events have not come back, but there are opportunities with individualized boxes for events, said Alex Canter, CEO of Nextbite.
Many companies are committed to hybrid or remote work, so they’re looking for ways to offer foodservice to those workers, Canter said. “We’re getting orders for 500 individually wrapped bags going to different destinations, or orders for one-pound boxes of chocolate rugelach to be sent around the country as a holiday gift for executives. I think we’ll see restaurants expanding these types of offerings.”
Canter said the need for large seating capacity is becoming a thing of the past. “We’re going into a future where there might be more delivery drivers walking into a restaurant than customers,” he said. “The percentage of square footage devoted to back of the house will likely be larger than the front of the house going forward.”
The competition for employees from other industries is not going away, and neither are the calls for a higher minimum wage, said Victor Fernandez, vice president of insights at Black Box Intelligence. Restaurants have been rapidly catching up in terms of their wage gaps versus other industries, and Black Box Intelligence research shows offerings like paid leave, sick days, wellness programs and variable pay offerings have been increasing as well. But successful employers know that this is not just about solving for the current staffing crisis; it’s also an ongoing effort to create an engaged and inspired workplace.
“Employees may have starting pay as their primary objective when looking for a new job, but what will keep them employed is much more than that,” said Fernandez.
High-end dining isn’t going away, but restaurants will focus less on the song-and-dance of formality that once was required to obtain those game-changing Michelin stars, said Bo Peabody, cofounder of restaurant discovery and rewards platform Seated and co-owner of Mezze Restaurant in Williamstown, Mass.
Fine dining will become “less fussy” and “more hip,” appealing to a younger diner and those who want quality with a more relaxed approach to service, ambiance and style of menu, Peabody predicted. Blame the need to cut back on labor costs, but also the consumer embrace of outdoor dining, where experiences tend to be more casual.
“Even 10 years ago, there used to be 20 restaurants in New York that require dinner jackets. Now I think there’s only one,” he said.
Nick Cole, head of restaurant finance at Mitsubishi UF Financial Group, said restaurant companies have seen their margins erode as costs increase and as challenges such as labor put a squeeze on the business. Those lower margins will slow the pace of M&A in the first quarter of 2022, he predicted.
“The M&A market depends on a well-capitalized banking system flush with liquidity, which we currently have,” he said. “But cash flow — and the price acquirers are willing to pay for that liquidity — are the primary drivers that attract buyers, so unless we see an improvement in margins, we expect the pullback to be significant.”
Lisa Jennings, Nation’s Restaurant News executive editor, on three sustainability movements that are gaining real traction.
Now more than ever, restaurants are under pressure by consumers to find a more sustainable solution for to-go packaging. The shipping backup has made it difficult for many restaurants to get the disposable packaging they need. Compostables aren’t the answer, as most composting facilities won’t accept foodservice packaging. The common-sense solution is to consider a switch to reusable containers, clamshells and cups that can be returned, washed and sanitized, then used again. While there are still kinks to work out in how it all works, legislation restricting single-use cup, containers and straws will only increase.
Consumers are getting tired of the “blah blah” of greenwashing and they want to see businesses show how they are reducing their impact on the environment. We’ll see more restaurants tie sustainability goals to executive compensation and become more transparent about measurable metrics. Chipotle, for example, has pledged to cut carbon emissions in half, not only from its restaurants but also from its supply chain. The brand is following the United Nations-backed Science Based Target Initiative, or SBTi, which establishes standards and best practices, but it also includes third-party verification and annual progress reports.
Los Angeles in November became one of the largest cities to phase in new rules that make disposable cutlery available only by request. Rather than adding cutlery and napkins to takeout orders automatically, restaurants may only provide them when customers ask. The goal is to reduce waste — if customers are eating at home, they have cutlery and napkins. It also reduces the cost to restaurants, who are struggling with rising packaging inflation.
Eric Dzwonczyk, global co-leader of the restaurants, hospitality and leisure practice at management consulting firm AlixPartners, said the pandemic has permanently changed the habits of more than a third of Americans, according to his firm’s data. “That doesn’t necessarily mean they will be spending less on restaurants, but it does mean [they are] being more selective and having heightened expectations on how they want to engage with restaurants, including more trading down and, in some cases, more trading up and in-store,” he said.
Black Box Intelligence, the Dallas-based restaurant analytics firm, predicted the off-premises sales mix will remain elevated as consumers stick with their new dining habits.
“There has been little change in the share of all restaurant sales that went through off-premises channels in Q2 and Q3 of 2021,” the firm reported. “Even though restrictions were mostly lifted and consumers were much more comfortable going out, both limited-service and full-service restaurants continue to see a much larger share of off-premises sales than they did pre-COVID.”
Consumers can expect to access their favorite eateries online, according to BentoBox. A big change, however, is when they do it. The online ordering business that serves 7,500 restaurants globally said it has seen the percentage increase but, most interestingly, shift to weekdays.
“Weekends have long been the main days for online ordering,” the company said in its annual predictions. “That’s still the case, but the gap between weekends and weekdays shrunk considerably in 2021. Online ordering has become a routine part of peoples’ lives rather than a ‘treat’ saved for weekends.”
Marketing intelligence agency Mintel reported that consumers crave a sense of control over their lives, particularly in times of uncertainty — and restaurants can support that need so that guests “feel like they’re in the driver’s seat.”
Dana Macke, Mintel’s director of trends for the Americas, said consumers near clarity, transparency, flexibility and options to make decisions that suit their individual needs and circumstances. “Brands will need to work harder to deliver reliable information and balance censorship and authenticity,” she said. “The race for the fastest delivery will evolve to focus on being more flexible, giving consumers more control over when products arrive to fit around their schedules or to match their other specific needs. Consumers’ desire to know potential outcomes will manifest in the development of predictive technologies that can anticipate adverse events. … Technology will evolve to grant consumers the power to plan with peace of mind.”
Christine Barone, CEO of the 39-unit True Food Kitchen, said that casual-dining brand expects to meet the consumer where they want to be met, be it a menu in the restaurant, a quick-response or QR code that allows them to access the menu on their smartphone or online.
Mintel’s research found consumers want “enjoyment everywhere” after the anxiety and stress of pandemic lockdowns. Macke said brands are “recognizing the importance of uplifting people by giving them permission to feel happiness once again.”
Texas Roadhouse Inc., for example, found a way to maintain its barrels of peanuts experience during the pandemic by offering pre-packaged nuts. Those were also included in to-go off-premises orders to complete the experience in the home or wherever the food was consumed. That sense of playfulness and creativity will continue to be appreciated by customers, Macke said.
While many brands have made their voices heard on controversial topics, consumers want to see measurable progress against their goals, Mintel said in its annual look at the year ahead. For example, major brands have made commitments to sustainability in the face of global warming and to diversity amid the race-based protests of the past two years. “Consumer demand for, and expectations of, brands’ ethical commitments are evolving,” Macke said. “They have moved beyond simply wanting brands to ‘be ethical’ and are demanding to see measurable, transparent and consistent actions from those they choose to support. Consumers will look beyond a brand’s achievements and strengths; businesses will need to be transparent about their weaknesses, too, where and why they fail and how they plan to address these issues in future.”
Ron Ruggless, Nation’s Restaurant News senior editor, on how consumer expectations around convenience and safety are changing restaurant service models.
Real estate that accommodates a drive-thru, already golden during the pandemic, will become even more lucrative. Already, brands from Burger King to Taco Bell to Portillo’s are designing prototypes with three and four drive-thru lanes, accommodating both wheeled customers as well as the boom in third-party delivery couriers. That is spreading into fast casual with Chipotle and others. Even Applebee’s, a casual-dining brand, has tested a drive-thru lane. Expect to see more.
While experts say the coronavirus doesn’t spread well through surfaces, consumers have adjusted to touching as few surfaces as possible. Expect restroom faucets with no handles, doors that open automatically and fewer dispensing stations. Even Coke Freestyle, which early on laid claim to its touchy-feely interface, has gone to a smartphone-based website dispenser that allows customers to operate the machines from their own — probably germ laden — smartphone.
European restaurants have been years ahead of their U.S. counterparts in allowing pay-at-the-table, with the chipped credit card never leaving the sight of the owner. BJ’s Restaurants and other brands already are sampling pay-on-the-phone technologies that will expand in casual dining, giving patrons the flexibility to customize their experiences and not be dependent on a waiter.
Patios are with us for a long time. While the pandemic sent many customers and operators to use their outdoor spaces, that trend will remain as customers cautiously go back to dining at restaurants. It’s a breath of fresh air, really.
