By Prof. Michael Tanchum
India’s increased production of sugar cane and wheat is driven by ethanol mandate for fuel.
Bucking global trends, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa are experiencing robust population growth. Accompanied by rapid urbanization and rising lifestyle expectations for higher meat consumption and automotive mobility, markets in these regions are witnessing exploding demand for maize, sugar cane, and palm oil as domestic production is being strained to the limit to meet competing demands for growing crops for animal feed versus crops for biofuel production.
Pushing for greater agri-food self-sufficiency, governments from Indonesia to India to Nigeria are shifting production into high gear by placing even more land under cultivation for these crops. These markets will increasingly require their food growers to de-risk the effects of extreme weather, abiotic stress and soil degradation. Yields will need to increase to feed mouths and fuel tanks. This will provide ag-input companies some of the most important new market opportunities through 2050.
This trend is being propelled by the regionalization of agricultural production. It will also affect the production of agricultural inputs as nimble companies will look to move production to these market regions to cut costs and carve out greater market share. Sourcing in a local currency will further accelerate the trend.
India’s agricultural sector is on track to outpace the growth of India’s manufacturing sector, with an estimated FY2025 increase in gross value added of 4.6%. The economic heft of India’s agricultural sector reflects a wider trend of a global geographic shift in agricultural production toward southern regions of the eastern hemisphere – centering on India and the Southeast Asia’s larger nations over the next 10 to 15 years and then shifting to key African nations over a 20- to 25-year timeframe. Geopolitical factors – particularly demographics, climate change, and the unravelling of global supply chains – are driving the trend.
Future growth in global food consumption will occur most strongly in the eastern hemisphere in the regions where demographic growth is most robust – South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. The initiatives undertaken by countries in these regions to pursue agri-food self-sufficiency, especially initiatives in the rising middle-income and upper middle-income economies, are causing the geographical shift in agricultural production. No longer willing to rely so heavily on global supply chains and just-in-time inventories after repeated disruptions since 2020, these economies are seeking to supply more of their own agricultural staples (particularly cereal grains and sugar cane) and then looking to their close neighbors to fill any shortfalls, resulting in a growing regionalization of agricultural production and agri-food trade flows. A key driver of the increase in cereal grains and sugar cane
production are the competing pressures from the growth in demand for both animal feed and biofuels that is accompanying demographic growth and urbanization.
India’s agricultural sector is on track to outpace the growth of India’s manufacturing sector…” thanks in part to the growth in corn production for biofuels.
India – South Asia’s agricultural leviathan India is the world’s most populous country. Comprised of 1.46 billion citizens, India’s population is currently 3.26 times larger than the total population of the European Union (EU), where the death rate exceeds the birth rate by 32%. While the EU median age is 44.5 years, India’s overall median age is 28.8. With a much younger population and a fertility rate hovering just below the replacement rate of 2.1, India grows by over 11 million people annually – roughly equivalent to adding the entire population of the Czech Republic every year.
India’s population growth also stands in stark contrast to the major economies of Northeast Asia. India has already surpassed China as the most populous nation, with the latter having entered an accelerated phase of demographic collapse. Conventional estimates forecast China’s population will decrease by five million people per year by 2035, accelerating to a yearly population drop of nine million people by 2050. Japan’s population is decreasing by over half a million people per year, with forecasts for its yearly population decrease to reach about three-quarters of a million per year by 2035. South Korea’s fertility rate is 58% lower than that of Japan. Projections estimate that South Korea’s population of 51.68 million will dwindle to 11.2 million by 2125.
In contrast to the northern regions of the eastern hemisphere, India needs to increase its agricultural production to keep pace with its increasing population size. India’s ‘Green Revolution’ resulted in an average production increase of rice, wheat and pulses by 2.5% per year from 1950 to 2007, helping to reduce food insecurity but insufficient to cover the country’s 2.1% average population increase over the same period, given the starting level of agricultural production. According the 2024 Global Hunger Index (GHI), India ranks 105th out of the 127 ranked countries, with the 2024 report declaring that “India has a level of hunger that is serious.”
It is estimated that 13.7% of the Indian population is undernourished, equivalent roughly to 200 million
people or 45% of the EU population. The figure is startling given that India’s 2021-22 agricultural exports totaled $50.2 billion, with rice and wheat being India’s top exports. India’s rise as an agricultural exporter resulted from consistent crop yield increases that were facilitated by improved water management and agricultural technologies. India’s aspirations as an agricultural exporter were stymied with the late 2022 onset of an agricultural crisis brought on by extreme heat stress and water scarcity due to the weakening of the monsoon weather system. Although 2025 has witnessed a robust recovery in crop yields due to good rains, long-term systemic weakening of the monsoon system due to climate change and the placing of additional but less productive land under cultivation means the market outlook for increased precision irrigation, fertigation with water soluble fertilizers, and biostimulant use is quite strong.
India’s food self-sufficiency and the growing demand for animal feed and biofuels India’s rapid urbanization and the accompanying rise in incomes are resulting increased demand for animal feed and biofuels, which in turn is driving increased production of cereal grains, particularly maize, and sugar cane. By 2036, India will reach an urbanization rate of 40%, approximately 600 million people. By the time India celebrates its centennial as an independent nation in 2047, the majority of its citizens will be urban dwellers. Urbanization and its associated rising incomes have led to a greater demand for meat, most notably chicken as the most affordable land animal meat. The growth of India’s meat production industry has greatly outpaced its rate of population growth. Since 2000, India’s buffalo meat and beef production has witnessed an average annual growth rate of 5.1%, while chicken meat production grew by 8.5% per year on average over the same timeframe.
Rising expectations for more regular consumption of buffalo meat, beef, and especially chicken among India’s
growing urban populations will drive demand for animal feed and for the cereal grains that serve as feedstocks – particularly maize which comprises 40% of animal feed (wheat and soybean meal comprise 13% and 12%, respectively). Beyond buffalo meat, beef, and poultry, India is the world’s second largest fish and seafood producer, with approximately 10% sold as exports. Two-thirds of India’s fish and seafood production occurs by means of aquaculture further driving the demand of cereal grains used in animal feed, especially maize.
Despite being the world’s fifth largest maize producer, India has become a net importer of maize. In addition to the need to supply animal feed production, maize has been increasingly used to meet India’s E-20 mandate, using 20% ethanol blend in gasoline, by 2026. The total land area under maize cultivation has increased by 17% over the past five years. The use of maize for ethanol was intended in part to help relieve pressure on sugar cane-derived molasses as a feedstock.
The total land area under maize cultivation has increased by 17% over the past 5 years.
Despite being the world’s fifth largest maize producer, India has become a net importer of maize.
Uttar Pradesh is the largest producing state in India.
While India is the world’s second largest producer of sugar cane, responsible for 15% of global production compared to Brazil’s 24%, India is the world’s largest consumer of sugar. With urbanization leading to higher demand for processed foods and desserts, India’s consumption of sugar continues to climb. To ensure affordable domestic sugar supplies for food consumption while producing ethanol from molasses to meet the E-20 mandate, India inaugurated a sugar export ban in October 2023. The export ban greatly affected Indonesia, one of the world’s top five sugar importers, although India resumed moderate sugar exports in 2025. Becoming a net importer of maize, India halted maize exports to Vietnam in 2024.
Wheat field in Zanskar, India, a territory in the north of the country lying close to the Himalayan Mountain range. The Zanskar River feedsinto the Indus River.
Southeast Asia’s boom and the drive for agri-food self-sufficiency Southeast Asia as a whole is projected to experience 4.75% economic growth in 2025, with Indonesia’s growth expected to be near the average, while the accelerating lower middle income economies of The Philippines and Vietnam are expected to post economic growth of 6% or higher. Like India, Southeast Asia already has a much larger and younger
population than the northern regions of the eastern hemisphere. In contrast to Europe and Northeast Asia, most Southeast Asian national fertility rates are hovering at or slightly below above the replacement level of 2.1. With a median age across Southeast Asia of 30.5, the region is eyeing significant population increases during the next 10 years in addition to robust economic growth. Indonesia’s population, the region’s largest with over 280 million citizens is expected to grow by over two million people per year. The Philippines, the region’s second largest population with about 114 million, is forecast to add 1.7 million people annually to its population. Vietnam, the region’s third largest population with about 102 million inhabitants but a slower growth rate is expected to add over a half a million people per year over the next 10 years.
Indonesia’s population, the region’s largest with over 280 million citizens is expected to grow by over 2 million people per year.
Indonesia’s population, the largest in Southeast Asia with over 280 million citizens is expected to grow by over two million people per year. The capital city and largest city in Indonesia is Jakarta, pictured, with a population of more than 11 million.
To ensure adequate and affordable food supplies to their growing populations, Southeast Asia’s three largest countries, like India, have also initiated programs to achieve agri-food self-sufficiency, which will require fertilizers, biostimulants, and other agribusiness solutions to increase yield and agricultural efficiency. Also similar to India, these nations’ agricultural sectors need to become more resilient in the face of extreme abiotic stress caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation weather pattern (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean, whose deleterious impact on agriculture is being exacerbated by climate change. When triggered, ENSO’s El Nino phase can cause extreme heat and drought across Southeast Asia while the La Nina phase can cause extreme wet weather and typhoons. In early September 2024, Typhoon Yagi reduced agricultural output in all three nations, with Vietnam being theworst hit.
Indonesia has set a target to become food self-sufficient by 2029, as President Prabowo Subianto declared in his October 2024 inaugural address: "We must aim for food self-sufficiency as soon as possible. We cannot rely on food sources from abroad." Toward this end, Indonesia has programmed the cultivation of 600,000 to two million hectares of land in the Papua region, with maize and sugar cane, as priority crops, along with the national staple rice. In June 2023, the president of The Philippines similarly set a national target of 97% percent self-sufficiency in rice. The Filipino government also promulgated “The Philippine Yellow Corn Industry Development Roadmap” as a blueprint for the development of the industry that has begun with a short-term implementation plan that has included the dedication of tens of thousands of additional hectares of land to maize cultivation.
Southeast Asia’s rising demand for animal feed and biofuels The increasing demand for both animal feed and biofuels across Southeast Asia are driving efforts to increase yields of maize and sugar cane, as well as oil palms. In The Philippines, about 74% of domestically produced maize is used for animal feed, with almost all the remainder used for processed products (such as corn starch, oil, and syrup) or for food snacks. The country still faces approximately a 40% gap in self-sufficiency for maize used in animal feed production, which is covered by imports. The country’s Yellow Corn Industry Development Roadmap seeks to close that gap.
Demand for feed is even higher in Vietnam, whose livestock and aquaculture sectors are experiencing robust growth with increased domestic demand fueled by
Vietnam’s overall high rate of economic growth as well as high export demand. Vietnam’s pig and poultry populations increased by 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. The country’s catfish exports were up 9% over the previous year, while the value of Vietnam’s shrimp exports increased 11%. Maize production is less commercially viable than other crops in Vietnam, but can be grown as a substitute rotational crop in rice fields. When India ceased its maize exports to Vietnam to supply its maize-based ethanol production, Vietnam turned to its Southeast Asian neighbor Myanmar to make up the shortfall, illustrating the trend
toward regionalization of supply chains. Myanmar is among the world’s top 15 maize exporters, with export volumes typically exceeding Europe’s middle ranking maize exporters like Hungary and Bulgaria.
As in India, Southeast Asia’s push to develop biofuels as a green energy source puts further demand pressure on the region’s maize and sugar cane production. In December 2024, the Vietnamese government issued a directive to accelerate the promotion of biofuels, particularly the use of E-5 (5% ethanol blend in gasoline), which uses maize as its feedstock. Indonesia has expanded the use of E-5 in Java, the world’s most populous island, on the way achieving its 20% ethanol blend target. Produced in East Java, the fuel ethanol uses molasses as a feedstock. Supplying sufficient molasses feedstock has been challenged by the need to meet competing demand pressures for molasses from the nation’s food processing sector, which also required molasses as a feedstock.
The Philippines has an even more aggressive program when it comes to bioethanol. Mandating E-10 (10% ethanol blend) in 2013, the Filipino government began allowing fuel retailers to sell E-20 blends in 2024. Since the 2013 E-10 mandate, ethanol production in The Philippines has jumped by almost 450%, and currently consumes 80% of the country’s molasses supply, creating even more competing demand pressures than in Indonesia. Without sufficient sugar cane production to be self-sufficient in molasses as a feedstock for fuel ethanol, the use of maize as a feedstock would impinge on The Philippines efforts to be self-sufficient in maize for food
production requiring new areas for maize cultivation or improved yield in current corn production.
Additionally, Southeast Asia has made significant strides in promoting the consumption of biodiesel as well as biodiesel production, primarily from oil palms. Palm oil is the largest feedstock for biodiesel production worldwide, accounting for 36% of the global resource basis, followed by soybean oil at 23%. Prior to Typhoon Yagi, Indonesia was the world's third largest producer of biodiesel, using palm oil methyl ester as a feedstock. Biodiesel consumption in Indonesia has jumped 48% compared to pre-pandemic 2019 as a result of higher blending rates (up to 35% biodiesel) as well as increased diesel use.
The need to increase oil palm yields in Indonesia, and elsewhere in Southeast Asia for greater biodiesel production is driving the placement of additional land under oil palm cultivation. In areas where growing conditions are not optimal, higher quantities of potassium and phosphate fertilizers will be required along with agribusiness technologies to improve water and nutrient uptake as well as to cope with abiotic stress in the instance of drier or cooler conditions triggered by the advent of an ENSO weather pattern.
Africa – The long-term geopolitical future of agri-food production Africa has over 100 cities with more than one million inhabitants, one-third more than the EU. While the fertility rates for the North African region, except for Tunisia, are at or above replacement level, the fertility rate for Sub-Saharan Africa is 4.3 with a median age of just 19.3 years. By 2030, 42% of all young people in the world will live in Africa. The continent possesses 65% of the Earth's uncultivated arable land and has the energy for agriculture – from vast reserves of natural gas just being developed to the world’s largest solar energy resources as well as ample wind and other renewable energy resources. Looking over a 20- to 25-year timeframe, the geopolitical future of agri-food production is in Africa.
Africa’s three largest nations, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt, have each inaugurated large-scale initiatives to boost their cereal grain production. The combined population of these three countries alone exceeds the entire EU population, and their combined GDP exceeds $1 trillion. Several other major economies in Africa are taking similar measures to boost agricultural self-sufficiency. The advantages in water-use efficiency and coping with heat stress provided by precision irrigation along with water-soluble fertilizers and biostimulants could mean the difference between success and failure across the continent.
A powerful additional driver of local African production is local sourcing enables countries to avoid the costly expenditure of foreign exchange reserves. An illustrative example is the rise in cassava cultivation in Nigeria. Unilever’s factory in Lagos produces 10,000-14,000 tons of Pepsodent and Close-Up toothpaste annually. The factory used to source the required sorbitol – a sugar alcohol derived from maize – from China, paying in foreign exchange. Psaltry International in Nigeria’s Oyo state built a plant for processing cassava including the extraction of sorbitol and began supplying sorbitol to Unilever’s Lagos factory in late 2022, bypassing overseas shipping costs and the use of foreign reserves. Unilever now buys 70% of the plant’s sorbitol production, with Psaltry International also supplying Nestle and Danone. Creating a higher value-added boom for cassava cultivation, over 10,000 farmers supply cassava to the plant.
Conclusion Achieving higher agricultural production in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa will require more and better fertilizers, pesticides, and fungicides as well as other agribusiness solutions to increase yield and agricultural efficiency. These regions also have an increasingly urgent need to acquire agri-tech solutions such as biostimulants to cope with abiotic stress and will also increasingly turn to biocontrol to cope with future pest threats resulting from increasingly extreme weather conditions. New agricultural production in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa represent some of the most important market opportunities for global agribusiness through 2050. Additionally, the manufacturing of agri-tech products will experience a shift to these regions to capture market share advantage from local or nearby production as well as the factors of more available labor, land, and energy that are driving the general shift in agricultural production south and southeast.
Professor Michael is CEO of Nexus ForesightTM and teaches Universidad de Navarra. He is also associate fellow in the Economics and Energy Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. and a research fellow at the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies at the Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. You can follow him on Twitter @michaeltanchum. ●
Catfish being prepped at seafood factory, Mekong Delta, in Vietnam.
