In its most recent intelligence on this segment, data provider Frost & Sullivan puts the 2018 value of the plant-based protein ingredient sector at some US$11.6 billion, with current values at around $14.6 billion. Based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% between 2020 and 2026, it forecasts a value of $22.2 billion by the end of this period. Volumes are expected to increase by the slightly more modest rate of 7.2% CAGR over these six years, to reach 5.93 million tonnes. Soy and wheat are likely to account for 84% of this total, in tonnage terms, according to Frost & Sullivan. The equivalent figure in 2018 was 87%. So, the focus on alternative plant proteins such as pea, rice, fava and even algal protein in research and new product development is not predicted to feed through into a major shift in volume share—not imminently, at least.
Gradual change is underway, however. While these figures put the volume CAGR for soy and wheat protein respectively at 7.0% and 6.3%, up to 2026, the forecast rates for pea and rice protein are 9.7% and 8.6%. Surprisingly, perhaps, given its nutritional profile, algae-derived protein is expected to hit a tonnage of just 29,000 tonnes by 2026, based on a relatively sluggish CAGR of 5.3%.
Australia invests in marine bioproducts
When it comes to end-applications, the data is not broken down as helpfully as it might have been. What is defined as ‘food and beverages’ accounts for 57% of forecast 2026 volumes, grinding out 8.2% annual growth over the six years. Sports nutrition is estimated to account for 19% of the 5.93M tonnes, growing at a CAGR of 6.4%. Finally, in geographical terms, despite all the energy devoted to talking about plant-based diets in Europe and North America, these are not the markets most likely to grow the fastest in terms of ingredients consumption. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, Frost & Sullivan calculates, overtook North America in volume terms between last year and 2021, and will achieve volumes of 2.26M tonnes by the end of the period under review, averaging 10.4% CAGR. North America, on the other hand, will manage growth of below half this rate (4.8%) to reach 1.72M tonnes. Growing at a similar level of 5.3%, it is anticipated that European markets will be consuming 1.38M tonnes by 2026. From a much lower base, demand from the rest of the world is likely to grow at 8.5%, says the data company. While insect nutrition offers high-quality, sustainably produced proteins, it remains unclear what impact they will have on protein supplementation markets over the next few years. A report from Meticulous Research published at the end of last year forecasts a volume CAGR in edible insect products of 28.5% from 2020 to 2027 to reach some 1.4M tonnes globally. The equivalent increase in value will be 26.5%, says the company, to hit $4.63bn by the end of this period. However, these figures relate to all types of nutrition, including animal feed and whole insects. In terms of human food, whole insects still dominate this market and will continue to see the highest demand internationally to 2027. The APAC region is expected to see the strongest growth.
Motivations and objections toward insect-derived protein bars supplementation.
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